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HELP PICKING YOUR BRACKET
Date Posted: 3/16/2005

HELP PICKING YOUR BRACKET

1) Pick all No. 1 seeds to win their first-round games. This one's a gimme: Top-seeded teams have never lost an opening-round game since the field was expanded to at least 64 teams in 1985.

2) Pick two teams seeded 13th or worse to defeat teams seeded one through four.

3) Pick one No. 3 seed to lose in the first round.

4) Pick at least one No. 2 seed to lose in the first two rounds.

5) Don't pick a No. 1 seed to reach the Final Four, let alone win the national tournament, if the school wasn't in the NCAA playoffs the previous year.

6) Don't automatically pick a perennial power to defeat an opponent with a double-digit seeding.

7) Pick a team seeded No. 1 or No. 2 to win the national title. The only championship game without at least one No. 1 or No. 2 seed was 1989, when a pair of No. 3 seeds clashed (Michigan and Seton Hall).

8) Don't pick more than two of the four regional No. 1 seeds to reach the Final Four.

9) Pick the better-seeded team to win any second-round game pitting two double-digit seeds against each other. The only time the worst of two double-digit seeds won was in 1998, when #13 Valparaiso upended #12 Florida State, 83-77, in the Midwest Regional.

10) Pick one team with a double-digit seed to reach a regional semifinal.

11) Don't pick more than one regional to have its top four seeds reach the regional semifinals. In fact, it has occurred only 10 times since the field expanded to at least 64 teams in 1985.

12) If two members of the same conference earn No. 1 seeds, don't pick both teams to reach the Final Four. Only once has two #1 seeds from the same league advanced to the national semifinals (Georgetown and St. John's from the Big East in 1985).

13) Don't pick all four No. 1 seeds to reach regional finals. It has happened only four years (1987, 1993, 2001 and 2003) since seeding was introduced in 1979.

14) Don't get behind the former (Big) Eight ball. Former Big Eight squads (now in the Big 12 Conference) seeded third through sixth had a penchant for being upset in the first round. No Big Eight or Big 12 postseason tournament champion has ever gone ahead and also captured the NCAA title.

15) Pick at least one Big East team to lose in the opening round.

16) Pick at least two teams from the Big Ten and/or SEC to incur opening-round defeats.

17) Don't pick a team from the Big South and Southland to win a first-round game.

18) Don't pick an at-large team with a losing conference record to get beyond the second round.

19) Pick at least two ACC teams to reach a regional semifinal and at least one to reach the Final Four.

20) If an ACC school wins both the league's regular-season and tournament titles, pick the team to reach the Final Four.

21) Don't be swayed by a postseason conference tournament title or a poor performance in an elite league tourney. Disregard the "hot team" factor because a defeat in a league tournament is often a better motivational tool than a complacency-inducing victory.

22) Double your pleasure by picking two teams from the same conference to reach the Final Four. It happened each of the previous six years.

23) Don't choose a different member from the same league as the previous year's champion (Connecticut in the Big East) to capture the crown. There has been just six times in NCAA playoff history for two different schools from the same conference to win the title in back-to-back years--Big Ten (Indiana '40 and Wisconsin '41); ACC (North Carolina '82 and N.C. State '83); Big East (Georgetown '84 and Villanova '85), ACC (Duke '92 and North Carolina '93); ACC (Duke '01 and Maryland '02), and Big East (Syracuse '03 and Connecticut '04). Three different members from the same alliance capturing the crown over a three-year span has never happened.

24) Two of your Final Four picks should be teams that didn't finish atop their regular-season conference standings.

25) Burnout has a tendency to set in. Remember that the odds are against a conference tournament champion reaching the NCAA Tournament final.

26) Don't pick a team to reach the Final Four if it lost in the first round of a postseason conference tournament.

27) Don't be too concerned about a regular-season defeat against a conference rival with a losing league record.

28) Don't get carried away with the Pacific-10 Conference. A Pac-10 team regularly loses an opening-round game to an opponent seeded 12th or worse.

29) Don't pick a conference tournament champion winning four games in four nights to reach a regional semifinal. Only two league tourney titlists to run the table since 1985 (Auburn in 1985 and Xavier in 2004) compiled a winning record in the NCAA playoffs.

30) Pick one league to have four members reach the regional semifinals. It happened a total of 13 times in a 15-year span from 1989 through 2003.

31) Don't be overwhelmed by quantity because six or seven bids for a league is not a recipe for success. Less than half (20) of the first 41 conferences in this category finished with cumulative playoff records better than two games above .500.

32) If there are as many as four first-time entrants, pick one of the novices to win its opening-round game.

33) Don't pick a team with 30 or more victories entering the tournament to win the national title.

34) Don't develop an aversion for coaches with impoverished playoff records. Remember: Legendary John Wooden lost his first five playoff games as coach at UCLA by an average of 11.4 points and compiled an anemic 3-9 record from 1950 through 1963 before the Bruins won an unprecedented 10 national titles in 12 years from 1964 through 1975.

35) Don't be obsessed with comparing regular-season scores. Two-thirds of the NCAA champions weren't exactly invincible as they combined to lose more than 50 games by double-digit margins.

36) Pick a team with at least 25 victories entering the tournament to win the championship. Villanova, entering the 1985 playoffs with 19 triumphs, was the only national champion in more than 35 years to enter the tourney with fewer than 20 wins until Arizona won it all in 1997 after also entering with 19 victories.

37) Don't pick the nation's top-ranked team entering the tournament to reach the national championship game, let alone capture the crown. Also, Illinois has never won a Final Four contest.

38) The best place to start selecting the Final Four is in the previous year's round of 16. More than half of the teams reaching the national semifinals since 1988 advanced to a regional semifinal the previous season.

39) Don't tamper with a "curse" by picking a team with the nation's leading scorer on its roster to reach the Final Four. No national champion has had a player average as many as 30 points per game.

40) Make certain your Final Four picks include at least one 30-game winner and one team with a minimum of six defeats.

41) After choosing your Final Four schools, don't automatically select the winningest remaining team to go ahead and capture the title.

42) Don't pick a team to win the championship if an underclassman guard is leading the squad in scoring.

43) Don't pick a team to win the championship if its top two scorers are white athletes.

44) Don't pick a team with as many as 12 defeats entering the tourney to reach a regional semifinal.

45) Don't pick a team entering the tournament undefeated to go ahead and win the title. Of the first 17 teams to enter the playoffs with unblemished records, just seven were on to capture the national championship. Excluding UCLA's dominance under coach John Wooden, the only other unbeaten NCAA champion since North Carolina in 1957 is Indiana in 1976.

46) Don't overdose on senior leadership. A senior-laden lineup is not a prerequisite for capturing a national championship. An average of only two seniors were among the top seven scorers for NCAA Tournament titlists since the playoff field expanded to at least 64 teams in 1985. Half of the 14 NCAA champions from 1991 through 2004 had only one senior among their top seven scorers.

47) Pick any team defeating North Carolina or Duke in the bracket to already be in or on its way to the Final Four.

48) Pick Duke to advance in the bracket if they oppose members of the Big East and Big Ten. Despite Indiana's success against the Blue Devils in the 2002 South Regional and Connecticut's victory over them in the 2004 Final Four, the Dynasty in Durham rarely loses a playoff game against Big East and Big Ten competition.

49) Don't pick a member of the MAC or former member of the SWC to reach the Final Four. No Mid-American member has ever reached the national semifinals and the SWC Final Four teams all failed to come home with the national championship trophy.

50) Don't pick a Conference USA member to reach a regional final.

51) Pick Kansas to win a regional final if the Jayhawks advance that far. KU went to the Final Four six straight times the Jayhawks reached a regional championship game (1971-74-86-88-91-93) until they were upset by Syracuse in the 1996 West Regional. Kansas won regional finals against Oregon in 2002 and Arizona in 2003 before bowing to Georgia Tech in 2004.

52) Don't pick a team to win the national title if its coach is in his first season at the school.

53) Make certain the coach of your championship team has at least five years of head coaching experience.

54) Don't pick a team to capture the title if it is coached by a graduate of the school.

55) Pick at least one Final Four team with a coach who will be making his debut at the national semifinals. Just four Final Fours (1951, 1968, 1984 and 1993) had all four coaches arrive there with previous Final Four experience.

56) Don't pick the defending champion to repeat as national titlist.

57) Don't pick the defending national runner-up (Georgia Tech) to win the championship the next season. The only teams ever to finish national runner-up one year and then capture the title the next season were North Carolina (1981 and 1982) and Duke (1990 and 1991).

58) Don't put any stock into justifying a preseason No. 1 ranking. The runner-up won each of the four times the preseason No. 1 and No. 2 teams met on the hallowed ground of the NCAA final.

59) Pick one team not ranked among the national top 10 entering the tournament to reach the championship game.

60) Pick at least a couple of teams coached by African Americans to advance a minimum of two rounds in the tournament.

61) Don't pick a school to reach the Final Four if you think a vital undergraduate defector from last season will become a pro star. Of the 10 individuals to score more than 20,000 points in the NBA or be named to at least five All-NBA teams after participating in the NCAA Division I playoffs and then leaving college with eligibility remaining, none of their schools reached the Final Four the year or years they could have still been in college--Auburn (Charles Barkley departed early), Houston (Hakeem Olajuwon), Indiana (Isiah Thomas), Kansas (Wilt Chamberlain), Louisiana Tech (Karl Malone), Michigan State (Magic Johnson), North Carolina (Bob McAdoo and Michael Jordan), Notre Dame (Adrian Dantley) and Seattle (Elgin Baylor).

62) Don't be infatuated by a Final Four newbie. Before UConn in 1999, the last team to win a championship in its initial national semifinal appearance was Texas Western (now Texas-El Paso) in 1966.

63) Pick at least one of your Final Four teams to have a transfer starter but don't choose a squad in that category to win the title.

64) Don't be infatuated with first-team All-Americans when deciding Final Four teams because a majority of NCAA consensus first-team All-Americans failed to reach the national semifinals since seeding was introduced.

65) Your star search should focus more on pro prospects. Do select Final Four teams that each have a minimum of one player who'll eventually become a No. 1 NBA draft choice with one of the squads reaching the championship game to have at least three players who'll become a No. 1 NBA draft pick.

Tested Tiebreakers

· The vast majority of NCAA Tournament office pools have a tiebreaker category or two. One of them might be designating a player for most points in a single game of the tournament. If so, avoid selecting a player from the championship team because the highest output normally is achieved by a member of a non-titlist.

· Another possible tiebreaker is projecting the total number of points in the championship game. To get your bearings, you should know the average point total is more than 150 since the inception nationwide of both the shot clock and three-point field goal.